Premier League Predictions

The Barclays Premier League is back this weekend for a new season, and although a big part of its charm is its unpredictability, there are always a few events which are less surprising than others. Instead of the usual preview, with who I think will win the league, who will get relegated and that sort of thing, I thought I would look into some of those easy-to-predict events. I have looked deep into my crystal ball to offer you just a few stories which I think will happen in the upcoming campaign.

Steve Kean will be sacked as Blackburn Rovers manager.
Blackburn's owners, the Venky's group, sacked Sam Allardyce early last season with the club reasonably well placed in the league table, or at least as well as was to be expected. For the Indians to declare their top-six ambitions and then to replace a top, experienced boss in Big Sam with Kean was a very strange move, and since then, Rovers have dropped like a stone. An Allardyce-led Blackburn would never have needed a final day win at Wolves to stay up, and I can't see it getting any better before the owners decide that enough is enough. With or without Kean, I see a very tough year for the Ewood Park outfit, and that's before the possible loss of Chris Samba.

Fernando Torres will score 15 league goals.
Everyone knows the ability that Torres has, and at times in his career, especially in the early years at Liverpool, he has looked every bit the best striker in the world. It is easy to write strikers off during barren spells in front of goal, yet also easy to forget how difficult it must be for a January signing to adapt to a new club and its style of play. Edin Dzeko didn't seem to get the stick Torres got despite an equally disappointing start for Manchester City last season. I also expect him to be a lot better this year. I think Torres can continue to form partnerships with Nicolas Anelka, Didier Drogba and possibly Romelu Lukaku and become the dangerman that his £50m price tag suggests he must be.

Arsenal will again flatter to deceive at the back.
Despite calls to do so, Arsene Wenger has again (at the time of writing) failed to sign a top-class defender or goalkeeper. Although Wojciech Szczesny looks the part in goal, there are still question marks about him experience-wise. Thomas Vermaelen was a huge miss last season, and while he looks like one of the league's great defenders, it became far too apparent that his colleagues just aren't up to it at times. I'm still not convinced by Sebastien Squillaci. Carl Jenkinson has come in from Charlton, but with the greatest respect, I don't think he was the defensive acquisition the Gunners fans had in mind this pre-season. Their defensive ineptitude was highlighted at Wembley in the Carling Cup final, but more so at Newcastle in the 4-4 draw. Can you really expect Chelsea, Manchester United or Manchester City to have not won there? No, yet I still wouldn't be surprised if Arsenal had a similar result this year.

Mario Balotelli will find himself in trouble.
Balotelli is no stranger to finding himself in the headlines for the wrong reasons rather than the right, and I can't see that changing in a hurry. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended the season away from the Etihad Stadium if Roberto Mancini loses patience with him. He is obviously a very good player, but he needs to show it far more often. What best summed him up last season was his display at The Hawthorns against West Bromwich Albion, where he scored twice yet was sent off in a 2-0 win. He isn't showing signs of maturity quite yet though, and he was described as 'an embarrassment' by Sky Sports' Gary Neville during the Community Shield coverage. Something has to change, but will it? Not likely.

Twitter will get a player into trouble.
We have seen it before (Ryan Babel), we are currently seeing it (Joey Barton), and I am certain we will see Twitter get some other player into trouble this season. Twitter is brilliant; it gives fans access to players that had been lost in recent years, and a lot of them tell us things that perhaps they couldn't in official interviews. Perhaps that is the problem. Its quick nature means that players often tweet without thought and it is very easy to publish information they may regret. Babel's doctored photo of Howard Webb in a Manchester United shirt, and Barton's war of words with Newcastle United are two examples of that. A few managers have talked about banning it. I hope that doesn't happen, but players need to be aware that we are all watching them.

We will have 'a breath of fresh air'.
In the last few years, we have seen promoted sides take the Premier League by storm in the early months with no-nonsense, all-out-attack football. It's great to see, but ultimately it doesn't get you anywhere. 38 games is a long time for the league to work you out, just ask Blackpool last year, Hull a couple of years ago, and West Brom under Tony Mowbray. All of those sides went down, despite playing some great football at times. Some may even call it 'a breath of fresh air'. I hate that phrase. The bad thing about it last season was that all of the pundits seemed so unaware of its overuse. I must have heard it hundreds of times. It's meant as a compliment, yet all they mean is 'they can't defend for toffee, but aren't they brave'. It's patronising to say the least, and I would be astonished if Swansea or Norwich didn't get the treatment. They would rather not though. Give me a 1-0 any day of the week.

Liverpool will get back into the top four.
I'm not sure at who's expense, although right now Arsenal look the most likely, but this is the year that Liverpool will finally get back into the Champions League. Kenny Dalglish has arrived and completely changed the club. Their second half of last season couldn't have gone better, in contrast to a first half which couldn't have been worse. Liverpool is now a club that feels they're going places again, and a full season of Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez's partnership, plus the new midfield signings to come in and support them is an exciting prospect. In addition, the emergence of the likes of Jay Spearing, John Flanagan and Jack Robinson means that they have genuine strength in depth that has not been there in the last few years. Although the fans wish they did have it, they have no Europa League football as a potential distraction to league form.

Let me know what you think, as well as offer your own predictions via this blog, or at twitter.com/adamgray50

A new season brings new optimism.

The new npower Football League season gets underway this week, and as ever, it is excellently previewed in the September issue of FourFourTwo magazine. For those that don't know, it asks a fan of each club a set of questions about their team and the season. I am a Nottingham Forest fan, and here are my answers to those questions:

Dream season:
Automatic promotion. I think we're some way off that though, especially looking at some of the squads in the division.

Our fans think our team is:
Short of a left back and a 20-goal-a-season striker, yet capable of beating any team in the league on their day.

Best away ground in your division:
The atmosphere at Upton Park was brilliant when we went there in the Cup last season. A proper ground with passionate support.

Manager's popularity out of 10:
There seems to be cautious optimism at the moment, yet you can't doubt Steve McClaren's pedigree, England notwithstanding. I'll say 7. I get the feeling that the national press will be breathing down his neck if we make a poor start though.

Unsung hero at the club:
With Luke Chambers and Wes Morgan doing so well for us, it's easy to forget Chris Gunter's role in our side. One of the best right backs in the league right now.

Opposition player you admire:
There must be some great left backs around in the Championship. We can't be the only team without one.

Do you think McClaren has learned much since his 'Wally with the Brolly' England days?
He had a bad time with England, but that shouldn't be the be-all and end-all. After all, he has been successful before and since. One bad experience doesn't make you a bad manager.

Can football have its own England v Exiles game?

Friday night saw Rugby League's first ever International Origin match between England and the Exiles, a side made up of the best overseas players currently in the Super League. For the record, the Exiles won the game 16-12 at Headingley, in front of a decent crowd of 14,000.

While I am not the world's biggest Rugby League fan, I do take my hat off to those at the RFL who are not afraid to try something new to lure fans into what has traditionally been a sport that has played second fiddle to Union in most of the country. The scoreline certainly suggests that it was a better game and more of a spectacle than the annual thrashings that England have given out to France in the past at this time of year anyway.

Which got me thinking. Could the FA and the Premier League organise such a game? Would they? Or even should they? England v a Rest of the World Premier League side. I for one would love to see it, even if it is just a one off fixture. Of course, international football is much more common than it is in Rugby League, and there would be many managers who would shudder at the thought of their superstars playing even one more game than necessary. But I would imagine that there are a lot of fans who would love to see it, and it may even go some distance to ending the debate that my friends and I often have, namely how well would England get on in the Premier League. Last time, we decided 4th, if you're interested.

Assuming the game was to take place this week, I have taken the England XI from last week against Switzerland, with the following exceptions. Wayne Rooney would be involved (he was suspended last week), and Ashley Young would start, as he should have done at Wembley in the 2-2 draw.

England: Joe Hart; Glen Johnson, John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, Ashley Cole; Theo Walcott, Frank Lampard, Jack Wilshere, Ashley Young; Wayne Rooney, Darren Bent.
Subs: Rob Green, Phil Jagielka, Leighton Baines, Gareth Barry, Scott Parker, Stewart Downing, Bobby Zamora.

I have chosen the 'Exiles' squad based on the season just finished in the Barclays Premier League. Not an easy choice, and it will be interesting to hear what your squads would be. For me they would line up as follows:

Rest of the World PL: Edwin van der Sar; Fabio, Nemanja Vidic, David Luiz, Patrice Evra; Antonio Valencia; Yaya Toure, Cesc Fabregas, Gareth Bale; Robin van Persie, Carlos Tevez.
Subs: Pepe Reina, Brede Hangeland, Vincent Kompany, Luka Modric, Rafael van der Vaart, Dirk Kuyt, Javier Hernandez.

That would be some game, although sadly I think the World team would win it. It would be tight though, the odd goal would probably decide it.

Let me know your thoughts on the idea of the game, and of my 'exiles' squad. Look forward to hearing from you.

Survival Sunday: Who's for the drop?

After ten months and 37 games, and many twists, turns, shocks and surprises, the fate of five Barclays Premier League clubs comes down to 90 minutes. Survival Sunday is well and truly upon us.

Going into the final day, Wigan and Blackpool (both 39pts) occupy the two remaining relegation places, with Birmingham (39) outside on goal difference. Wolves host Blackburn (both on 40 pts), where the winners are guaranteed safety, and that is where I shall start my preview.

This game could very easily turn into an Austria v West Germany situation. On that occasion, the sides pre-arranged a 1-0 German win that benefited both countries, changing the rules for last-day fixtures. I am not suggesting there will be any pre-game chat here between Messrs Kean and McCarthy, but if the other games are going their way both teams will certainly settle for a draw and play keep-ball for as long as necessary. The caveat is that a draw would send both sides down if all of the other three relegation rivals win, and Wolves alone would drop if any two of the other three emerge with three points.

Wolves therefore will be more keen for the win, but despite their very good form of late, I think this game will be a draw.

Blackpool are off to Old Trafford to take on the champions Manchester United, where in all likelihood, they will have to win the game to stay up. Only West Brom have taken so much as a point from the Theatre of Dreams this season, and even that looks a tall order for the Tangerines, irrespective of Sir Alex Ferguson's team selection. In my opinion he can put the youth team out with no arguments; I think its fair to say that he has earnt the right to select any 11 players he likes. Whichever side comes out, they ought to be too strong. After all, their 'reserves' have already beaten Schalke 04 4-1 this season.

I'll go for a comfortable home win to send Blackpool back into the Championship.

Wigan have, in my opinion, the most winnable of the final fixtures against a Stoke side who must surely have their summer holidays in mind following the FA Cup final defeat. That said, it won't be a gimme for the Latics, the Britannia Stadium is still one of the more difficult grounds from which to take a result home. That said, I think Wigan's hunger alone - emphatically shown by their comeback last week against West Ham - can get them the result they hope will keep them up.

As I said, of all the opponents they could have had, Wigan probably would have chosen Stoke, and I think they will get the point they need for survival.

That is because Birmingham, who have dropped like a stone since winning the Carling Cup, are at a Tottenham side who still have fifth place, and a Europa League berth, to secure. Spurs are seemingly over their wobble, and their win at Liverpool was one of the more impressive results of the season. Despite Harry Redknapp's apparent lack of interest in the Europa League, he will be desperate to ensure that they finish as high as possible, ie. 5th, to secure it.

I can only see an easy home win here, sorry Blues fans.

So it's Blackpool and Birmingham to join West Ham in the second tier next season in my opinion. I'm sure it won't be that simple though. They will probably all be safe or down at some point, and I can't wait to see it unfold. Apparently there are 81 different permutations today, we may even see most of them. See you at 4.00!

A decent effort, but Forest fall short again

Nottingham Forest suffered another play-off disappointment last night, the defeat at Swansea's Liberty Stadium means the club has now failed in four such campaigns. But what do the fans take from the season? Pleasure from another decent attempt at promotion, or frustration that they came up short again? Probably both.

Some may look back at the season and think of it is a disappointment, a failure even, but for me, far from it. At the start of the campaign another tilt at the big time looked an awful long way off after a summer of discontent at the club. I blogged at the end of August expressing my anger at what I assumed would be the start of a downward spiral and a year of, at best, mid-table mediocrity. I did mention however that we hadn't become a bad side overnight either, and that's how it turned out to be fair.

We were, at the start of the season, a difficult team to beat without being spectacular, or indeed winning enough games, and that was how we continued really for too long. Players came in, which was an improvement on last year, but they were replacements rather than additions, and the squad was still far too thin. Although we were challenging for a top-two place as recently as February, there was a feeling in my head that it was almost too good to be true. There followed a sharp decline in form in the spring was in a part down to our lack of strength in depth and injuries and suspensions hitting that had stayed away a few weeks earlier.

The promotion season in League One saw Forest look out of the reckoning, before 6 wins in the last 7 got that side over the line. This season looked similar to that. Defeat at Norwich left us needing - in my opinion at the time - an unlikely 10 points, or even 12, from the last four games. We got 12 to get into the play-off places again. Unbelievable. I didn't see that coming after the Carrow Road game. Would momentum take us over the line? If only it was that simple, but I did have a feeling that the underdogs tag would suit us, as opposed to being the huge favourites we were against Blackpool, and before that, Yeovil Town. Sorry for the reminders!

As it turned out, we were underdogs for a reason. Swansea defended brilliantly at the City Ground with ten men, although were helped by Forest's alarming lack of ambition in the first half. The 0-0 scoreline felt like a win for them and Forest had, in my eyes, missed the boat. The second leg performance was much better from the Reds, but the Swans deserved the win. You have to take your chances, you cant afford to miss ones like those not taken by Marcus Tudgay and David McGoldrick.

Of course I was disappointed to have lost, but not devastated like in the aforementioned semi-finals. Rightly or wrongly, it didn't feel as bad. Overall it has been a decent season, but are decent seasons enough? Now we know we are a Championship club once again, we can get down to the business of sorting out the futures of those out of contract. I really hope the final-year trio of Guy Moussi, Nathan Tyson and Rob Earnshaw do not see their futures elsewhere. I would also like to see on-loan Kris Boyd at the club full time. There will probably be a few departures, but as long as more come in than go out we should be ok and ready to have another go next season.

Darts' night of shame

Last night saw the long awaited rematch of January's Ladbrokes.com World Darts Championship final between Adrian Lewis and Gary Anderson in week 6 of the 888.com Premier League. What was expected was a top-class display of arrows that would wow us like the Alexandra Palace showpiece did, all done before a partisan but well behaved Scottish crowd. What we got was one of the most shameful hours in the competition's - no, the sport's history.

Of course we expected the World Champion to be subjected to a rough reception - he was playing a Scotsman in Scotland after all, but nobody could have expected or can condone the line which was crossed by a small minority.

Lewis had beer thrown at him during his walk-on, and as if that wasn't bad enough, he then had to withstand a barrage of coins thrown at himself and even the dartboard during his visits to the oche. I don't think any player would have been able to take that, and nobody was surprised when Anderson, at this point visibly upset and embarrasssed at his countrymen's actions, raced into a 3-0 lead.

Anderson looked even more rattled by it than Lewis did, and at one point picked a coin up from the stage, pocketed it, and then missed three darts at double top, arguably deliberately, to gift Lewis a leg he nearly got booed out of.

Although the professional standard these days means that players are rarely put off their stride by crowd noise, this was something else, and both players posted averages (Lewis 88.18, Anderson 87.28) a full eleven and twelve points lower than their respective 99's at the World final in January. The majority of the supporters - who it must be said had been well behaved, and had earlier given Raymond van Barneveld an unbelievable reception - had every right to feel cheated.

Sadly, the PDC's tournaments, and especially the Premier League, are no stranger to misbehaving fans, but this is surely the incident - which has to be seen to be truly believed - that makes Barry Hearn and his team stand up, take notice and realise that the players and the real fans will not stand for it any longer.

Chelsea and Liverpool dominate Deadline Day

The January transfer window has seen unprecedented spending this year, especially when compared to the same period last season. Barclays Premier League clubs have spent over £200m this month compared to around £30m in 2010.

Of course, two clubs dominated the headlines on yesterday's Deadline Day. Chelsea had had a quiet time of it in recent transfer windows, not least because of the Gael Kakuta saga a couple of windows back, but this time they announced their re-emergence on the top financial table with a vengeance. The long-awaited, will they, won't they story finally reached a conclusion with the sensational signing of Benfica's David Luiz. Oh, and they signed some bloke called Torres as well.

Of course, Luiz adds defensive options to the club that perhaps they have lacked since Ricardo Carvalho's departure in the summer, and there have been questions about the form and fitness of Alex, Jose Bosingwa and John Terry. I'm sure he will be a great addition to the back line, but it is the Torres signing from Liverpool, for a British transfer record fee of £50m, that has really got the Blues fans excited.

Liverpool would have been desperate to keep their star striker, one who on form is possibly the best in the world, although this season he has cut a forlorn figure, and especially during the Roy Hodgson era, looked like a player who wished he was anywhere else. But every player has his price, and as soon as it became apparent that El Nino wanted to leave, Liverpool would have been crazy to turn the money down. Now, Torres has got his move, I expect him to hit the ground running. A goal against Liverpool on Sunday would be the perfect way to announce his arrival at Stamford Bridge. Of course, one added benefit is that he is not cup-tied for the Champions League this season, unlike the majority of big money January buys have been down the years. Torres is as desperate as Chelsea are to win what the club sees as the holy grail, their first European Cup.

The £50m didn't stay in the Anfield coffers for long though. The £22.8m deal to bring in Ajax's Luis Suarez had been done before Torres' move south, and that should be a great piece of business, but it was their second purchase which really got heads turning.

Newcastle frontman Andy Carroll is obviously a player of huge talent, and tremendous potential, but a £35m price tag is one worthy of all-time greats - David Villa was signed by Barcelona for £34m for example- not players with just 34 career goals, and only half a season of regular Premier League starts. That said, he has proven himself to be capable of playing with a huge weight of pressure on his shoulders - he was Newcastle's number 9 of course, and they don't give that shirt away in a raffle. With a good strike partner in Suarez, and service from Steven Gerrard, he should bang them in when he is fit, but if not, there will be questions asked about just why Liverpool paid quite so much money.

Of course the positive PR for the new owners might have had a great deal to do with it. What better way for John W. Henry and his team to announce 'We are not Hicks and Gillett, we are here for this club and its fans' than to spend the sort of money that could put Liverpool back to where they feel it belongs?

One thing is for sure, Sunday's game at Stamfor Bridge between Chelsea and Liverpool is sure to be a fiery one. Their intense rivalry which has developed over the last six or seven years or so is about to enter a whole new exciting chapter.